The age of the Glint shop are upon us. I already have more potions than I'll need for the next decade or so and titles are priced out of my range.
To buy a single extra match costs more than 10x what I earn with a win and I'm only winning about half of my matches, so that's not worthwhile.
This leaves me with card draws and Merits. Between the 2, I think Merits are the better deal (provided that you're in a guild). I don't want to put all of my glint into Gladius cards because there's a limit to how many of those are practical before those cards are maxed out for my summoners.
So far, I've purchased 10 Initiate Draws, my first batch. These are basically like Bronze level chests from days of yore, but they're all rewards cards. After each batch the price gets hiked. Even before seeing how big the hike is, I had planned to buy a batch of initiate draws before working on a batch of the Adept draws and so on. After seeing a huge 50% jump in the price when I move into the second batch my plan to move on after the first batch was reinforced. It does make sense, when we were working for rewards chests, each subsequent chest for the day and for the season would cost a little more than the last. I'm very curious to see if the second batch of other card draw rarities and other resources make the same 50% jump or something a little different. I'm also curious about how big the jump is between batch 2 and 3. If any of you know about these jumps, let me know.
Seeing how expensive everything is in the Glint shop, I couldn't sleep last night and decided that I needed to evaluate what each group of cards draws are worth, their expected value. The Master Draws are going to generally be better than Initiate draws, but when they cost more than 33x more I want to know if they're really 33x better. I expect that the best deal will be at one end of the spectrum either Initiate or Master, but it may be one of the options in between.
Thankfully this post https://peakd.com/hive-13323/@mango-juice/splinterlands-the-glint-token-update-is-live-finally was placed yesterday by @mango-juice and shows the drop rates for each rarity of card draw (the original post https://peakd.com/splinterlands/@splinterlands/splinterlands-ranked-reward-changes-introducing-glint-and-the-reward-shop from @splinterlands did not include these)
For my analysis I will make some assumptions/estimates. I will assume that rewards cards are worth as much as the least valuable card for sale with that classification. Some will be worth more, but we will also have to jump through hoops and there will be costs to jailbreak the new soulbound rewards cards when that day comes.
The least expensive card today is
Venari Heatsmith for $0.01, so we'll use that as the value of a regular foil common.
The least expensive rare today is
Exploding Rats for $0.02, so we'll use that as the value of a regular foil rare.
The least expensive epic today is
Lava Launcher for $0.09, so we'll use that as the value of a regular foil epic.
The least expensive legendary today is
Harklaw for $0.48, so we'll use that as the value of a regular foil legendary.
The least expensive gold card today is
Gargoya Lion for $0.19, so we'll use that as the value of a gold foil common.
The least expensive gold rare today is
Vampiric blossom for $0.94, so we'll use that as the value of a gold foil rare.
The least expensive gold epic today is
Magi Necrosi for $4.59, so we'll use that as the value of a gold foil epic.
The least expensive gold legendary today is
Legionnaire Alvar for $29.33, so we'll use that as the value of a gold foil legendary.
I'll just multiply your chances of each type of card for each type of draw, by these values. The chances should add up to 1. I'll then factor in chances of drawing multiple copies of a given card with your pull based on the assumption of an even distribution of card number. For example if I pull an epic card in a veteran pull then I'll assume a 50% chance of 1 copy and a 50% chance of 2 copies, so I'll just multiply the value added in the initial assessment for that spot by 1.5
Initiate
common regular foil 0.79003 x 0.01 = 0.007003
rare regular foil 0.199 x 0.02 = 0.00398
epic regular foil 0.004975 x 0.09 = 0.00044775
legendary regular foil 0.000995 x 0.48 = 0.0004776
common gold foil 0.00397 x 0.19 = 0.0007543
rare gold foil 0.001 x 0.94 = 0.00094
epic gold foil 0.000025 x 4.59 = 0.00011475
legendary gold foil 0.000005 x 29.33 = 0.00014665
Total value 0.01386405/150 glint = 0.00009243
Adept
common regular foil 0.76824 x 0.01 = 0.0076824
rare regular foil 0.198 x 0.02 = 0.00396
epic regular foil 0.0198 x 0.09 = 0.001782
legendary regular foil 0.00396 x 0.48 = 0.0019008
common gold foil 0.00776 x 0.19 = 0.0014744
rare gold foil 0.002 x 0.94 = 0.00188
epic gold foil 0.0002 x 4.59 = 0.000918
legendary gold foil 0.00004 x 29.33 = 0.0011732
Total value 0.0207708/400 = 0.00005193
Veteran
common regular foil 0.7448 x 0.01 = 0.007448
rare regular foil 0.196 x 0.02 = 0.00392
epic regular foil 0.0294 x 0.09 = 0.002646
legendary regular foil 0.0098 x 0.48 = 0.004704
common gold foil 0.0152 x 0.19 = 0.002888
rare gold foil 0.004 x 0.94 = 0.00376
epic gold foil 0.0006 x 4.59 = 0.002754
legendary gold foil 0.0002 x 29.33 = 0.005866
Total value 0.033986/1000 = 0.00003399
Elite
common regular foil 0.70464 x 0.01 = 0.0070464
rare regular foil 0.192 x 0.02 = 0.00384
epic regular foil 0.048 x 0.09 = 0.00432
legendary regular foil 0.01536 x 0.48 = 0.0073728
common gold foil 0.02936 x 0.19 = 0.0055784
rare gold foil 0.008 x 0.94 = 0.00752
epic gold foil 0.002 x 4.59 = 0.00918
legendary gold foil 0.00064 x 29.33 = 0.0187712
Total value 0.0636288/2500 = 0.00002545
Master
common regular foil 0.64672 x 0.01 = 0.0064672
rare regular foil 0.188 x 0.02 = 0.00376
epic regular foil 0.0752 x 0.09 = 0.006768
legendary regular foil 0.03008 x 0.48 = 0.0144384
common gold foil 0.04128 x 0.19 = 0.0078432
rare gold foil 0.012 x 0.94 = 0.01128
epic gold foil 0.0048 x 4.59 = 0.022032
legendary gold foil 0.00192 x 29.33 = 0.0563136
Total value 0.1289024/5000 = 0.00002578
If we don't account for multiple copies of a card per pull then initiate draws represent the best value followed by adept, veteran, master and elite
Now we account for the chance of multiple copies in a pull. You'll notice that I don't include initiate here because you won't get multiple copies of anything in those pulls.
Adept
common regular foil 0.76824 x 0.01 = 0.0076824 x 2 = 0.0153648
rare regular foil 0.198 x 0.02 = 0.00396 x 1.5 = 0.00594
epic regular foil 0.0198 x 0.09 = 0.001782
legendary regular foil 0.00396 x 0.48 = 0.0019008
common gold foil 0.00776 x 0.19 = 0.0014744
rare gold foil 0.002 x 0.94 = 0.00188
epic gold foil 0.0002 x 4.59 = 0.000918
legendary gold foil 0.00004 x 29.33 = 0.0011732
Total value 0.0304332/400 = 0.00007608
Veteran
common regular foil 0.7448 x 0.01 = 0.007448 x 4 = 0.029792
rare regular foil 0.196 x 0.02 = 0.00392 x 3 = 0.01176
epic regular foil 0.0294 x 0.09 = 0.002646 x 1.5 = 0.003969
legendary regular foil 0.0098 x 0.48 = 0.004704
common gold foil 0.0152 x 0.19 = 0.002888 x 2 = 0.005776
rare gold foil 0.004 x 0.94 = 0.00376 x 2 = 0.00752
epic gold foil 0.0006 x 4.59 = 0.002754 x 1.5 = 0.004131
legendary gold foil 0.0002 x 29.33 = 0.005866 x 1.5 = 0.008799
Total value 0.076451/1000 = 0.00007645
Elite
common regular foil 0.70464 x 0.01 = 0.0070464 x 6 = 0.0422784
rare regular foil 0.192 x 0.02 = 0.00384 x 5 = 0.0192
epic regular foil 0.048 x 0.09 = 0.00432 x 1.5 = 0.00648
legendary regular foil 0.01536 x 0.48 = 0.0073728 x 1.5 = 0.0110592
common gold foil 0.02936 x 0.19 = 0.0055784 x 3 = 0.0167352
rare gold foil 0.008 x 0.94 = 0.00752 x 3 = 0.02256
epic gold foil 0.002 x 4.59 = 0.00918 x 1.5 = 0.01377
legendary gold foil 0.00064 x 29.33 = 0.0187712 x 2 = 0.0375424
Total value 0.1696252/2500 = 0.00006785
Master
common regular foil 0.64672 x 0.01 = 0.0064672 x 8 = 0.0517376
rare regular foil 0.188 x 0.02 = 0.00376 x 6 = 0.02256
epic regular foil 0.0752 x 0.09 = 0.006768 x 1.5 = 0.010152
legendary regular foil 0.03008 x 0.48 = 0.0144384 x 1.5 = 0.0216576
common gold foil 0.04128 x 0.19 = 0.0078432 x 4 = 0.0313728
rare gold foil 0.012 x 0.94 = 0.01128 x 4 = 0.04512
epic gold foil 0.0048 x 4.59 = 0.022032 x 1.5 = 0.033048
legendary gold foil 0.00192 x 29.33 = 0.0563136 x 2 = 0.1126272
Total value 0.3282752/5000 = 0.00006566
THE WINNER
After accounting for multiple copies of a card per pull, initiate pulls are still the most worthwhile followed by veteran pulls, adept pulls, elite pulls and master pulls.
After accounting for the 50% premium that you pay on your second batch of initiate pulls the other pulls all offer a slightly better value, but it came out closer to parity than I was expecting.
Feel free to review my math and let me know if I missed something.
I'm impressed that the results are so close to parity. It looks like the team did a pretty good job of balancing things. Starting out with the rewards shop it feels like rewards have been nerfed, but running these calculations has given me a little more faith in the team. Hopefully by the time that we've finished a season and received the Season End Loot we'll all feel better about the new system.
I would love to hear your thoughts on the new Glint shop and on my calculations.
I hope this post has been helpful and informative. Thanks for reading and thanks for all the upvotes, reblogs, comments and follows. I'll see you in the game. If you're interested in starting your own Splinterlands adventure feel free to use my affiliate link to get started https://splinterlands.com?ref=jingo-submo PeakD is a terrific site for learning more about the game and the market.