We're two weeks away from reaching four months since BTC reached a new ATH. For three and a half months, we have been ranging below the ATH for BTC, which is now standing at $74,000. Some say that this was the peak for the current bull market, while others are extremely bullish about what's left of this season.
Big names such as Gareth Soloway and El Capo have missed the whole run since late 2022 because they refused to see the patterns in crypto and preferred to stick with their biases and their TA. To me, their analysis is a failure at this point, as I have stated since 2023 that we are in a bull market.
I don't know where this market will go. In previous cycles, we have seen prices chop around past cycle highs before the parabolic rise begins. Some might argue that we've had our parabolic rise after the ETF was announced, but I would argue against that.
If you remember back in 2019-2020, we had a pretty nice rally back then as well, only to see a harsh correction taking place after the halving. Now, things are slightly different, but the four-year cycle theory is still in play. I would love if this bull market were shorter in length than the previous one but as aggressive as the past three. However, the market does not do what I like.
All of us here are retail investors. 99.9% of crypto Twitter is represented by retail investors as well. But if we consider the flood of retail investors that enter the market near the peak of the bull market, we who are active and already invested are a small percentage of that.
There are quite a few who still believe that retail has any impact on the market, and these types of people believe that we won't have an altcoin season anymore because everybody is broke due to inflation and that the worldwide economic situation is gonna hinder their appetite for investing.
Such statements couldn't be further from the truth. In my opinion, retail stopped playing an important role in fueling bull market rallies around the peaks of the ICO saga in 2016. It is big money (smart money) that is behind the wheel now. All retail does is signal the stages of the bull market for whoever pays attention to the psychology of the market.
We here are smart money, although our bag sizes are petite. I really believe it because most of us here have invested long before retail does. You know when retail will flood the market once again? Right before the peak occurs.
We are in a disbelief stage of the after-halving rally right now, and once big money pulls the trigger for the second run—which might happen when the ETH ETF gets approved (some say it's going to be on July 2nd)—then the final phase of the bull market will commence, and you won't believe your eyes.
It is when you can't believe your eyes when looking at your portfolio's estimated value that you should consider locking in some profits because that's when retail kicks in, and it is always late to the party. Same story every cycle. Retail does not play any role in crypto other than acting as a counter-indicator for us "smart money." It is that simple.
Imagine 2024 is 2020 all over again, just that now, instead of lockdown fears, we have inflation and war fears... The market will rally higher nevertheless, it will be epic, and once again, retail will enter the market at the wrong time. What do you think?
Thanks for your attention,
Adrian