How AI Is Skewing Out Of Date Metrics Like GDP Even Further

in voilk •  4 months ago

    A significant portion of the global population is quickly learning how quickly technology is moving.

    This is going to cause a lot of fallout as most of society is ill-prepared to hand what is coming. We constantly see talking heads on television, particularly the financial media, acting like it is just another day.

    It is simply not the case.

    Also, we have a large portion of the economic and financial community, the ones who regularly espouse about such topics, who really do not grasp technology and its impact. Sure, they can understand the concept of NVIDIA as the "shovel vendor" yet fail to comprehend what we are facing with AI.

    This is going to cause massive acceleration in a number of areas. Unfortunately, not all of it is positive.

    Metrics Like GDP Are Hiding The Age Of Abundance

    I started writing and doing videos about the age of abundance back in 2018 or 2019. It was evident back then where things were heading.

    While blockchain was even further back in its infancy (not that it has grown much), it was evident the potential this offered. Also, many were privy to what Web 3.0, along with the technologies that comprised it, would generate.

    Over the last 18 months, many are starting to see what is happening.

    Here is an example:

    How much would these photos have cost to produce a decade ago? Consider the time it would have taken to get to sites where the background was right for the pics.

    Of course, these are AI generated. This was done with a free software program. In other words, the cost to me was zero. It is called Ideogram and it is leading (for this week) the text-to-image race.

    We are seeing this leading the pack simply because their updated version just came out. It is likely that, within a couple weeks, someone else will bring out their new version, setting the pace once again.

    None of this is going to be captured in the GDP metrics. Even with the free version, one can enter 25 different prompts per day, resulting in 100 images.

    While there are some flaws in each picture, they certainly aren't noticeable when glancing at the pics. We also no longer see massive disfigurations so commonly associated with this technology.

    Society Is Not Prepared For AI

    The massive deflation that we are going to see is going to overwhelm the masses. It is something that is coming at a pace we are not accustomed to.

    Our major issue with these technologies is we have no accounting for free. When images like this can be generated in abundance, the price of anything remotely associated declines in value.

    What is the next step?

    There is so much going on, it is impossible to answer. We are seeing massive advancement on the LLM, robotics, video, and an assortment of other technologies. Elon Musk says that AI compute is experiencing a 10x every 6 months. Obviously this is unsustainable but we are dealing with massive growth.

    Compute and data is what drives all of this. While the selling of chips and associated hardware figures into the metrics, the impact of what is created is the exact opposite.

    Technological deflation is a component that society doesn't factor into things very well. The reason is because, traditionally, things move slowly, at least relatively speaking.

    That is no longer the case.

    AI is upending everything. Society is going face massive a shift including having to redo the metrics. Unfortunately, on this count, there isn't a lot that can be done.

    Either way, we are looking at a massive distortion. The impact of what is taking place is much bigger than what the numbers cite.


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