The presidential election of 2024 may be no less historic, arising from the most significant and unpredictable events in recent memory. We may well witness either the first female President or see Donald Trump back in the White House for a second term.
I've been keeping a close eye on this race, and fascinating but concerning polling data is coming out.
Harris narrowly edged ahead in the country as a whole, but some of the battleground states are showing razor-thin margins. Margins of 1-2% in states like Pennsylvania and Michigan are far too close for comfort.
But I'm not taking any great confidence in the polling because we have just seen, election after election, that the pollsters tend to undercount for Trump, and I don't think they've fully worked out that problem. There could easily be hidden Trump voters that aren't being captured. At the same time, Harris is a historic candidate who could potentially drive record turnout among women and voters of color.
It's just so hard to predict.
Perhaps the most notable aspect is the dramatic shift in the race when Harris entered.
Biden was always well behind Trump by considerable margins, while Harris somehow managed to close that gap and even pulled slightly ahead. That, to me, says something:
She is connecting with voters in a way Biden wasn't.
The recent debate also seemed to give her a slight boost.
But let's be honest, a 2-3 point national lead is nothing to write home about, and the race remains up for grabs. With how our electoral college system works, Harris could win the popular vote by millions and still lose the presidency.
Just ask Hillary Clinton how that feels.
Of all those swing states, I'm most nervous about Pennsylvania because it has the most electoral votes of the swings and has had the outcome decided by less than 2% in each of the last two elections. Right now, Harris and Trump are practically tied there. Whichever one can gain even the slightest lead in PA is in the driver's seat to win the whole thing.
It's a high-stakes election, in which we see two candidates with very disparate visions concerning the future of America.
Harris stands for continuity, an expansion of the Biden agenda, more investment in clean energy, protection of abortion rights, the strengthening of democratic institutions, whereas Trump promises "America First" with plans for further restrictions on immigration, more conservative judges, and a rollback on regulation.
I'm personally very concerned about a second term of Trump.
I really thought his first four years in office were amazingly divisive and chaotic. His handling of COVID was deeply irresponsible, followed by unfounded claims of election fraud after he lost in 2020. And I fear what he may do to democratic norms and institutions if he gets another four years.
With that said, Harris hasn't exactly won everyone over, either.
She had a rather tumultuous tenure as VP, and her 2020 presidential bid quickly sputtered. I'm not convinced she can unite the country and tackle the enormous challenges we are facing. She had a good debate performance, nothing too spectacular.
It all comes down to turnout at the end of the day and which candidate does a better job of mobilizing their base in key states.
I think the polls are interesting, but they're not destiny. We've got a long way to go before November, and a lot can change.