Amazingly the UK no longer has any excess mortality, well according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) anyway.
In a publication dated 20 February here the ONS explain how they are employing a new method for estimating the expected number of deaths used in the calculation of excess mortality (the difference between the actual and expected number of deaths); this is not the case for the current method, which uses a simple five-year average to estimate the number of expected deaths.
Claiming the statistics were impacted by the immediate mortality of Covid-19 to justify the changes. The publication puts forward several reasons why this change in methodology is advantageous.
With increased focus on the excess deaths being reported in 2022 and 2023 it is no surprise that the British Government (through the ONS) has desired a change to how these deaths are recorded. In essence the baseline has been moved. Even without these specific changes it was inevitable at some point that the comparison data set was to move from the comparison of excess deaths from before Covid-19 to a comparison between periods following Covid-19, and dare I suggest, after the roll out of the vaccine.
For those of us trying to alert others to the impact of the vaccine roll-out the excess mortality figures were a case in point.
An article from the BMJ (British Medical Journal) typifies the response the establishment has had to the scandal that has been the excess deaths in the UK since the roll out of the vaccine. Pointing out that different methodologies are used by different bodies and that the ONS don’t take account of changes in population size and structure such as ageing. Therefore, age standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) provide a more reliable basis for assessing trends over time.
The article goes on to dig into causes for the excess deaths
covid-19 increases the risk of cardiovascular problems even months after infection, which could in part be driving excess deaths.
Another possibility is that people may not be receiving the care they need from an NHS that was already overstretched pre-pandemic and is now coping with unprecedented backlogs of care and pressures on emergency services. This 'crisis' situation has an adverse impact on all patients, but a lack of timely care can be especially life threatening for people with acute cardiovascular problems.
The ONS also notes that excess deaths can occur following periods when deaths were lower than average, ie, 'mortality displacement'. Could some of the excess deaths since April reflect the lower ASMRs in early 2022?
So, unsurprisingly not one mention of the vaccine. Looking at the above narrative we can now see how this change in methodology will be received. Due to the change some months have gone from showing an excess mortality to a minus figure. Which won’t be due to the manipulation of statistics. Oh no, it will be down to Covid becoming endemic and less of a ‘killer disease’, that the backlogs in the NHS have cleared, that all round it’s so much better to be alive now!
There are currently other statistical bodies such as the OECD and those produced for actuaries where we can compare data with that which the ONS is producing. These will show us the difference in statistical methods can have.
I think it was inevitable that at some point they were going to change the baseline and the new methodology allows for that. It means that an MP like Andrew Bridgen can no longer bring up excess mortality in the House of Commons and initiate a debate – even if the House was practically empty on the day.
John Williams, at Shadow Stats, runs a statistical model of general inflation based on how it was calculated back in the 1970s before they changed the methodology. Now everyone with half a working brain knows the government’s inflation figures are manipulated and don’t reflect the real level of inflation felt by ordinary people. His figures show inflation is running nearer to 10-12%.
I hope someone statistically minded out there can do the same thing for the excess mortality data. Only by comparing pre-jab to post-jab death statistics can we identify if there is reason for concern. Of course not wanting the embarrassment of admitting they were wrong the British Government still satnds by the tired old “the vaccines were safe and effective” bs.
Of course I think the excess death figures have been screaming that there is something wrong with the jabs for years. To me this change in statistical methodology stinks of cynical manipulation to cover up that impact. What do you think, do you trust the government’s statistics?
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