The S&P 500 finished 2024 up 25%. It was the third consecutive year the S&P 500 grew by more than 20%. Here is the table showing growth rates since 1928:
Given that the average per annum growth over the last century was 10%, it feels like 2025 will be a year where the market corrects. (Usually fast growth is followed by a fall. Example; 1928 had greater than 40% growth. 1929, 1930, 1931 and 1932 all had negative growth. Example 2: 1954 had greater than 50% growth. 1955 and 1956 also had positive growth. The correction came in 1957).
If there is to be a correction, which sectors will it apply to? Here is how stocks performed in 2024:
Following the killing of United Health Group's CEO, health stocks will continue to suffer. It's likely there will be political pressure to regulate how they handle claims.
1990's fashion brands like Nike will continue to fade as Generation X approaches retirement. Likewise other Gen X hobbies like computer gaming, fascination with Star Wars (Disney will take a hit), and other sci-fi, Starbucks and other 90's lifestyle brands.
Will tech fall over? The tech companies dependent on advertising might, as the world goes into recession - Google, Facebook, Twitter.
I think Nvidia will keep going through - it's crucial to AI, crypto mining and many other sectors. And Visa and American Express will continue to make steady gains as you can't buy anything online without them. Crypto should have been a threat to them, but use of crypto as a payment method has stalled. People hoard bitcoin, and the smaller coins don't have a big enough community to build ecommerce around.